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Virginia Capitol C onnections, Summer 2016
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On March 1, Virginia voters went to the polls as part of the Super
Tuesday Presidential Primaries. While primaries are not necessarily
predictive of the outcomes of general elections, the patterns and
trends in participation and support may offer clues as to the potential
appeal of the Presidential candidates in November.
With Virginia likely to be a highly contested state, we provide
analysis of the city and county votes for each party. We demonstrate
the relationships between candidate support and factors such as
region of the state, minority share of the population, income levels,
and residents in college. Our findings include:
Key Points
Turnout
Participation by Virginians in the 2016 Presidential primary
surpassed all previous levels for the Commonwealth. More than one-
third (34.32%) of Virginia’s voters voted. The previous record was
31.77%, set in 2008.
GOP turnout was 19.43% of registered voters, up 8.92 points
Reading the Tea Leaves:
Do the Virginia Presidential Primaries
Offer a Clue to November’s Vote?
By John McGlennon and Jakob A. Deel
McGlennon Deel
from 2008, breaking the record set in 2000. Democratic turnout was
14.89%, down from 2008’s record of 21.42%.
Republican turnout increases were biggest in rural areas and the
Washington and Richmond suburbs. Democrats lost turnout the most
in Hampton Roads and Southwest but held steadier in college towns
and the Northern suburbs (Tables 1 and 2).
Republican turnout was negatively correlated with African-
American, Hispanic, and student population but positively correlated
with median income. Democratic turnout was positively correlated
with all those characteristics. Most of these correlations were stronger
this year than in 2008.
Democratic Results
Hillary Clinton won overall with 64.29% of the vote to Bernie
Sanders’ 35.20%. Clinton won by large margins in most areas except
in college towns and the white, rural Southwest (Table 1).
Support for Clinton was positively
correlated with African-American
population and negatively correlated with
student population and median income.
However, Clinton performed better in some
key college towns than she did in 2008.
Republican Results
Donald Trump won with 34.80% of
the vote to Marco Rubio’s 31.98%, Ted
Cruz’s 16.69%, and John Kasich’s 9.54%.
Trump did best in whiter, more rural areas,
dominating in the Southwest and beating his
overall average in the Shenandoah Valley.
Ted Cruz’s performance was very similar,
and he did especially well in the Valley.
Rubio and Kasich fared best in suburbs
and college towns (Table 2), and they
actually took first and third, respectively, in
Northern Virginia.
Marco Rubio and John Kasich
both performed better in localities with
higher median incomes, larger Hispanic
populations, and higher shares of the
population in college. Support for Donald
Trump and Ted Cruz had negative
correlations with those characteristics.
Implications for the
General Election
Democrats
Clinton had strong support among
low-income and African-American voters.
She also fared well in the Washington and
Richmond suburbs, which, along with
Hampton Roads, were the areas with the
highest Democratic primary turnout. These
results among the Democratic base suggest
she will perform well in Virginia come
November.
2016 Democratic Primary in Virginia by Selected Regions
Presents the percent of the vote for these candidates won by each;
Ignores the <1% of statewide vote for other candidates
Sanders Clinton
Percent Voting for Candidates
in Regions
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Total Hampton Roads Northern Southwest Central Valley
2016 Republican Primary in Virginia by Selected Regions
Percent Voting for Candidates
in Regions
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Total Hampton Roads Northern Southwest Central Valley
Presents the percent of the vote for these candidates won by each;
Ignores the <1% of statewide vote for other candidates
Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson