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Virginia C apitol C onnections, Fall 2014
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US Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia)
has long been one of the Old Dominion’s
most popular politicians, and even in a tough
year for the Democratic Party nationally
he enjoys what surveys say is a roughly
ten percentage point lead going into the
November election.
But that’s not all. Many of the state’s
residents, it seems, also consider Virginia’s
senior senator as presidential material.
National polls show former Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead in
early tests of the 2016 Democratic field, and
she is the top choice in the Old Dominion as
well. But should Clinton choose not to run or
if she stumbles during the campaign, as she
did in 2008, MarkWarner is the clear second
choice of Virginians.
Clinton received the support of 33percent
of 1,000 adult Virginians in a University of
Mary Washington survey earlier this month,
while Warner had the support of 14 percent.
(Another 15 percent said Warner would be
their second choice.) Vice President Joe
Biden ranked third, with 7 percent support in the 2016 field.
So without even discussing a possible 2016 presidential campaign,
many Virginians say Warner should go for it. Clinton, the alternate
choice of 12 percent of Virginians, is the favorite or top alternate of
45 percent of those surveyed. Warner ranked first or second with 29
percent of those surveyed.
Eight years ago, Warner raised millions of dollars and tested
the presidential waters in the early nomination states of Iowa and
farnsworth
Hermerding
New Hampshire, but opted for a 2008 Senate race instead. Despite
his previous presidential interest, a Warner 2016 campaign seems
highly unlikely if Clinton runs. Last summer, the senator headlined a
fundraiser for Ready for Hillary, an organization dedicated to raising
money for Clinton’s widely anticipated 2016 run.
TheVirginian most likely to enter the 2016 Democratic nomination
field, former US Senator JimWebb, does not poll nearly as well within
the state asWarner does.Webb tied for fourth with US Senator Elizabeth
Warren (D-Mass.). Each had 5 percent support in the UMW survey.
Another 6 percent of Virginians named Webb their second choice
for the Democratic presidential nomination. His total of 11 percent first
and second place votes lags well behind Clinton and Warner, as well
as Biden, who was named by 20 percent of Virginians as their first or
second choice.
WhileVirginians often vote in a “middle of pack” primary, national
Democrats would be wise to take seriously the strength of Warner’s
appeal. The Old Dominion is not just a “purple” state in its presidential
election politics; it is also far more like America than are Iowa and
New Hampshire, the first caucus and primary states. With its liberal
Northern Virginia, its evangelical Southside, its agricultural heartland
in the Shenandoah Valley and its industrial urban core in Hampton
Roads, Democrats around the nation should takeVirginia’s nomination
preferences very seriously.
Running mate debate, anyone?
Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science and director
of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of
Mary Washington. Benjamin Hermerding is a research associate at
the center. The UMW survey of 1,000 adult Virginians was conducted
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International during
October 1-6. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (500)
and cell phone (500), and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5
percentage points for the entire sample.
Warner is seen as presidential, too By Stephen J. Farnsworth and Benjamin Hermerding
Virginia governors have been held
in high esteem since the days of colonial
governors Thomas Jefferson and Patrick
Henry. While most governors do not have a
long-term impact on Virginia politics, a few
have achieved a place in history by breaking
from tradition. Once tradition is broken
it is likely new laws will be written to set
clear boundaries for governing or certain
powers will be restricted. Breaking tradition
can shatter a long held public image or an
accepted myth which has been part of the
political culture. Any drastic change in Virginia’s public image can
potentially create an entirely new set of values in the political culture.
The actions of three governors since 1954 have jolted Virginia’s
political arena and modified the political culture. Linwood Holton
became the first Republican governor in the twentieth century. After
challenging the long accepted belief that only democrats would run
Virginia government he defied the Virginia tradition of separation
of the races. By walking his daughter to a predominantly African
American school in compliance with a Supreme Court decision to
integrate public schools he startled Virginians and the supporters of
Massive Resistance. A picture of Governor Holton and his daughter
made the front page of the New York Times. His defiance of local
tradition and the Byrd organization made him a symbol of a new
Virginia. This one gesture on the part of the governor ended the
Massive Resistance era when he declared, “The era of defiance is
behind us.” Integration of public schools did not happen immediately,
but clearly there was no turning back the clock.
Breaking Virginia Traditions By Toni-Michelle Travis
In 1989 DouglasWilder became the first elected African American
governor in Virginia and the U.S. This broke the tradition of an
establishment white, male, Democrat or Republican who had usually
served in the General Assembly before being elected governor.Wilder’s
close election sent the signal that African Americans in Virginia were
now fully a part of the political process. Wilder’s administration also
shattered the myth that blacks could not governor in a judicious way.
Recently, Governor McDonnell broke tradition not by tackling
racial issues, but by bringing unwanted attention to Virginia’s lax
ethic laws. McDonnell’s interactions with businessman Jonnie R.
Williams Sr. called into question whether McDonnell sold his office in
exchange for lavish gifts and loans of $177,000. Virginia has usually
been considered one of the least corrupt states. When McDonnell was
found guilty on eleven counts of corruption he caused a real break
with tradition by becoming the first Virginia governor to be indicted
and convicted of a federal crime. McDonnell broke the tradition of
Virginia‘s public image of running a clean government. In addition,
he sullied the image of the governor being a “ Virginia gentleman,”
someone known for his integrity in the tradition of General Robert
E. Lee. This will affect all future governors whose personal lives and
public acts will receive more scrutiny. Ethics laws will have to be
implemented asVirginia tries to repair its image and restore integrity to
the office of governor.
Virginia traditions can be good or bad. Reforms that are instituted
as a result of Governor McDonnell’s conviction should be worthy of
Virginia’s best traditions.
Toni-Michelle C. Travis is an Associate Professor of Government
and Politics at George Mason University and a former Fellow of
Oxford University’s Rothermere American Institute.
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